AGP Executive Report

Poland Trade & Logistics: Baltic Container Terminal (BCT) in Gdynia handled the inaugural call of the MSC Venice, the largest ship to dock there (16,652 TEU), after port upgrades including deeper waters, quay reconstruction and expanded turning capacity—positioning Gdynia as a deeper-water gateway and reducing reliance on feeder routes. EV Market Signals: OLX Group data shows EV demand is still accelerating across Europe and South Africa, with Poland up 34.3% year-on-year in June EV-related consumer leads; the report says Chinese brands are gaining share as prices stay accessible and adoption shifts from a spike to a structural trend. Cyber & Business Risk: Asahi’s September 2025 cyberattack cut FY2025 profit by 36.4% and disrupted systems, but the company says it’s strengthening security and targeting a return to profitability—another reminder for Polish firms to treat cyber resilience as a core business issue. Food Safety & Trade: A Philippines study mission to Poland focused on European poultry food safety, traceability and veterinary supervision, highlighting how EU standards are being used as a reference point for export-ready supply chains. Local Economy: Poland Township trustees discussed deficit-driven spending cuts, including pausing non-essential purchases and seasonal staffing—local budget pressure is starting to show up in day-to-day decisions.

Polish Labor & Justice: Polish police opened a probe after a plant manager near Kraków allegedly hurled xenophobic slurs at Ukrainian workers and tried to seize a phone from someone filming the incident, with the case now set for possible discrimination charges. EU Enlargement Politics: A think-tank warns the EU needs a “Team Enlargement” coalition of key member states to push the next expansion wave, arguing countries including Germany and Poland are still not aligned on the political and institutional plan for bringing in Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans. War-Era Healthcare: In Ukraine’s Lviv, the Superhumans Center says it has treated 5,000+ war survivors with reconstructive surgery and prosthetics, highlighting the growing economic and social footprint of war-related medical care near the Polish border. Poland’s Legal Rights Shift: Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled parts of a regulation on registering foreign same-sex marriage certificates unconstitutional, while the government says it will not implement the decision. Luxury Retail Deal: Vitkac announced a strategic partnership with French menswear brand HOM, expanding its curated luxury essentials offering as its loyalty base grows. Trade & Agriculture: Poland’s agriculture ministry says it’s in talks to open the Philippines market to Polish apples, aiming to start exports after phytosanitary compliance.

M&A in Mobility: Stellantis agreed to sell its Free2move car-sharing business to Mutares, with closing expected by end-2026, as Stellantis shifts capital under its FaSTLAne 2030 plan. Logistics & E-commerce: DHL will acquire Venipak’s parcel operations in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, expanding DHL eCommerce and building a local Baltic network. Defense & Ukraine ties: Poland says it wants a deal with Ukraine on MiG-29 transfers—expecting a decision in the coming weeks—or it will sell the jets to Bulgaria, in exchange for drone know-how and cooperation. EU-Russia trade pressure: The EU’s 21st sanctions package was published without seafood measures, despite earlier plans, while listing banks, crypto operators, vessels and oil-related targets. Poland-Ukraine security cooperation: Poland and Ukraine are also discussing maintenance/repair financing for MiGs alongside uncrewed aerial systems cooperation. Markets: European shares were flat as tech weakness (ASML-led) offset gains from easing oil prices after Iran ceasefire signals. Poland tourism angle: UNESCO added Gdynia’s modernist port city to the World Heritage List, boosting the city’s international profile.

US-Poland Legal Push: Poland has formally asked the United States to detain and extradite former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro over multiple criminal charges, after he fled to Hungary and was granted political asylum. Banking & Compliance Tech: UniCredit in Poland is rolling out Flagright for transaction monitoring, customer screening, risk scoring and case management across its digital banking operations. Energy Infrastructure: The Nordic-Baltic Hydrogen Corridor won strong early backing, with demand interest reaching 87% of projected 2040 capacity; Poland is flagged as a key consumption center. Retail Deal Update: Seven & i has decided not to invest in Poland’s largest convenience store chain after talks with Zabka failed. Security & Society: Reports say attacks on Ukrainians in Poland are rising, with police recording 180 hate-crime reports in the first half of 2026. Local Economy/Industry: UNESCO added Poland’s modernist port city of Gdynia to the World Heritage List, boosting the country’s cultural and tourism profile.

Poland Retail & M&A: Seven & i Holdings has ended talks about investing in Poland’s Zabka, saying it couldn’t agree on terms that would be in shareholders’ interests; Zabka operates nearly 13,000 stores and has been expanding in Romania since 2024. ERP & Training: Optimum is supporting AB World Foods with a Microsoft Dynamics 365 rollout, focusing on training and coaching for users across hubs including the UK and Poland. Auto Industry: Škoda Auto lifted first-half 2026 sales, revenue and profit, with electric models driving growth; deliveries rose 9.1% to 555,700, and Poland saw Škoda deliveries up 14.2%. Trade & Finance: Saudi Arabia reported a May merchandise trade surplus of $6.91bn, helped by higher oil exports; Poland is listed among key export destinations. Tech & Business Software: Haptiq is pitching AI-native enterprise platforms aimed at moving firms “beyond BI” toward real-time execution for private equity and enterprises. Energy/Policy Debate: The Warsaw Enterprise Institute criticises the EU’s ETS Phase 5 changes as “treadmill” tweaks without structural reform, arguing for tax cuts and innovation funds instead.

Poland’s Economy & Finance: Poland’s unemployment fell to 5.8% in June, but it still runs higher than a year earlier, while the country’s public debt has climbed above €500bn as borrowing hits a record pace. Retail & Business Deals: Japan’s Seven & i Holdings has ended talks on a minority investment in Poland’s convenience-chain Zabka after the sides failed to agree on terms. Energy & Industry: Poland is rolling out a $205m defense innovation programme aimed at boosting domestic military technology, as the broader European push for faster procurement meets wartime demand. Politics & Governance: The main opposition in Poland has reportedly collapsed amid the far-right’s momentum, adding uncertainty to the political calendar. Security & Trade: China has imposed export restrictions on dual-use goods tied to Rheinmetall and Tatra Trucks in response to EU sanctions against Russia, with the EU now reviewing the impact on affected firms. Historical Accountability: Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) says it has identified remains of anti-communist resistance fighter Mieczysław Dziemieszkiewicz, using historical work and genetic testing.

Poland Politics: Jarosław Kaczyński says more than 30 MPs have effectively left Law and Justice after refusing a leadership loyalty declaration tied to Mateusz Morawiecki’s Development Plus, setting up a fresh internal fight ahead of the 2027 election. Defense & Security: A Polish defense-company worker was killed in a Russian missile strike near Kyiv, underscoring the risks for Polish-linked operations in the war zone. Energy & Finance: Poland’s planned windfall tax on oil companies is headed to the constitutional court after the president referred the decision, while central bank commentary hints at more rate cuts only if inflation cooperates. Markets & Trade: Poland’s retail sales growth accelerated to 6.2% y/y in June, adding to the picture of a still-active consumer economy. EU/Geopolitics: PMs of Ukraine and Poland discussed joint infrastructure and energy projects, as Europe pushes deeper defense autonomy.

Poland-Ukraine Security: A Russian missile strike on a weapons expo near Kyiv killed a worker from a Polish defense firm, prompting a Ukrainian criminal probe and confirmation from Poland’s foreign ministry. EU Sanctions & Trade: China has imposed export restrictions on dual-use goods to 14 EU entities, including Rheinmetall and Tatra Trucks, tied to the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package. Defense Cooperation: Ukraine’s 26th Artillery Brigade says it used a Polish-made FlyEye drone to help guide a HIMARS strike that hit a Russian ammo depot in the Bakhmut sector. Business & Retail: Japan’s Seven & i Holdings has ended talks on taking a minority stake in Poland’s Zabka, citing failure to agree on deal terms. Energy & Infrastructure Finance: Ukraine’s PM Serhiy Koretsky discussed EBRD support for energy, transport and critical infrastructure restoration, noting EBRD investments in Ukraine have exceeded €1.4bn this year. Poland Politics & Public Mood: A CBOS study finds most Poles back cooperation with Ukraine against Russia, even as many remain angry over Zelensky naming a unit after the UPA amid the Volhynia massacre dispute.

Poland’s Retail Deal: Seven & i has ended investment talks with Zabka, dashing hopes of a major foreign stake in Poland’s convenience-store champion. Poland Politics: The main opposition PiS is splitting, with Morawiecki and MPs expelled after a loyalty-pledge ultimatum—raising uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election. Defense & Industry: A Russian missile strike on Kyiv region killed an employee of a Polish defense company, while reports also say Ukraine is using Polish Warmate 5 kamikaze drones as WB Group expands localized production. Cybersecurity: Russian-linked hackers (Laundry Bear/TA488) are accused of using Zimbra “beehive” attacks, targeting sectors including defense and government—an issue with clear spillover risk for Polish firms. Energy & Climate Tech: Volkswagen is using sheep grazing under its solar panels in Września, part of a broader agrivoltaics push that blends renewables with land use. EU Money: The ECB has opened public voting on new euro banknote designs, with themes split between birds/rivers and European culture icons.

Poland Politics: Poland’s main rightwing opposition Law and Justice (PiS) is splitting after Mateusz Morawiecki and allies were pushed out over internal policy disputes, with Kaczyński saying “around 30-something” MPs refused a loyalty pledge and could be expelled—raising pressure on PiS’s election prospects. EU Budget & Governance: EU governments are pushing back on the bloc’s “cash-for-reforms” model, arguing it risks reforms without local buy-in and could slow or reshape regional funding flows. Poland Economy: Poland’s unemployment fell to 5.8% in June, though it remains higher than a year earlier, while the country’s debt has climbed above €500bn amid record borrowing. Energy & Infrastructure: Poland expands Świnoujście LNG capacity, while R.Power moves more battery storage projects into construction, signaling continued investment in CEE grid flexibility. Defense & Security: Ukraine’s PM Serhiy Koretsky met Donald Tusk to discuss joint infrastructure and energy projects and thanked Poland for supporting the latest EU sanctions; separately, US forces used the Merops drone interceptor in combat, underscoring growing demand for low-cost air defense. EU Sanctions: The EU approved a 21st Russia sanctions package, but with watered-down elements after member-state opt-outs and disputes.

Poland–Ukraine Defense Talks: Poland has proposed to the US joint production of Patriot air-defense missiles, with manufacturing based in Poland and a trilateral setup involving Ukraine, plus a regional Patriot maintenance and service center. Black Sea Shipping Risk: Russia’s attacks on civilian vessels and port infrastructure are escalating fears for global food supplies, with Ukraine warning the strikes threaten maritime trade routes. EU Sanctions Update: The EU agreed a watered-down Russia sanctions package after Greece dropped its veto, including a freeze on the Russian oil price cap and targeted measures against Russian financial institutions. Poland Economy Watch: Poland’s unemployment fell to 5.8% in June, though it remains higher than a year earlier, while debt is climbing above €500bn amid record borrowing. Energy & Industry: Poland is pushing defense innovation with a $205m program to boost domestic military technology, while R.Power is moving Polish BESS projects into construction. Travel & Mobility: Passport rankings show Poland among the top tier in visa-free access, while Lithuania is drafting contingency plans if AirBaltic cuts services.

EU Sanctions: The EU agreed its 21st Russia sanctions package, but softened earlier plans to target Russian seafood after pushback from several capitals, including Poland. Poland Jobs: Poland’s unemployment edged up to 5.8% in June (up 0.7pp year on year) while the labour market stays tight, with firms increasingly using automation and AI as demographics bite. Poland–Ukraine M&A: Foreign investors are returning to Ukraine: inbound acquisitions doubled in H1 2026 to 10 deals worth $415mn, led by tech and financial services, as greenfield investment still lags. Poland–Defense Industry: Prime Minister Donald Tusk launched PERUN, a €175m defence innovation programme funding 29 R&D projects to cut reliance on foreign tech; Poland targets 4.7% of GDP defence spending in 2026. EU Competition/Media: The European Commission cleared the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery deal with conditions, including divestment steps tied to Universal’s UIP distribution partnership. Poland–Israel Diplomacy: Poland urged Israel to stop West Bank settlement expansion and settler violence, reiterating support for a two-state solution. Retail/Logistics Tech: Raben is rolling out Nulogy’s Shop Floor to digitise co-packing operations across seven Polish sites.

EU Antitrust Watch: The European Commission has cleared Paramount’s $81bn takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, but only with conditions aimed at protecting competition in EU film distribution, including ending Paramount’s EEA stake in United International Pictures and shifting Warner film distribution to Paramount’s pipeline in Europe. Poland & Hungary Labor Policy: Poland and Hungary are tightening rules on non-EU workers—Poland cut work permits by 22% and Hungary stopped issuing visas for some nationalities—moves economists warn could slow growth and reduce tax receipts. Trade & Industry: EU anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese tires are set to push Korean makers to reduce reliance on China; Hankook’s Hungary base helps, while Kumho is accelerating a Poland plant for 2028. Poland Business & Economy: Expensify is expanding its corporate card into Spain, Ireland, Poland and the Netherlands via Marqeta, adding spend controls and receipt matching for cross-border use. EU Finance & Markets: European stocks closed higher as UK inflation cooled, while investors weighed geopolitical risk and oil price moves. Energy War Impact: Ukrainian drones hit Russian oil and logistics sites, adding pressure to Russia’s fuel supply crunch and worsening shortages. Design & Built Environment: KWK Promes has finished the Gambit Office in Gliwice, a low-cost office-warehouse concept shaped by stacked-pipe geometry.

Poland Economy Watch: Polish retail sales rose 6.2% y/y in June, accelerating from May, with durable goods and cars among the drivers, even as analysts flag slower real income growth and rising inflation as a risk for consumption. Public Finance Risk: Capital Economics says Poland’s ~7% deficit is unlikely to spark an immediate debt crisis, but it will keep weighing on investment and raise bond-market sensitivity, with defence spending and the next election limiting room for consolidation. Transport & Safety: Poland’s rail regulator has revoked safety certificates of two freight operators after stop-signal incidents led to inspections uncovering serious safety gaps, including falsified records and missed brake tests. EU Infrastructure & Industry: Poland is set to become a bigger satellite-communications hub via the IRIS² programme, with a reported €656m investment and EU financing support. Three Seas Cooperation: Slovakia and Poland agreed to deepen Three Seas Initiative projects, focusing on transport and energy infrastructure with an emphasis on investment returns. Agriculture Support: Slovakia announced a higher 2026 sugar beet coupled payment of €632.80 per hectare, while noting Poland’s lower rate for comparison.

EU Border Tech & Travel Costs: Ryanair warns Glasgow passengers of “significant” queues at 16 airports this summer tied to the EU’s Entry Exit System (EES), with waits reported up to six hours and airlines urging a pause until after peak season. Monetary Policy Watch: Hungary’s central bank signalled more possible base-rate cuts over the summer if inflation stays on track, citing June inflation at 1.7% and room to manoeuvre. Poland–Kazakhstan Infrastructure Tech: Kazakhstan plans to adopt Polish bridge design technologies, including joint research with Poland’s Road and Bridge Research Institute and BIM-based digital modelling with Mosty Gdańsk. Poland–EU Satellite Push: Poland is set to become the EU’s eastern hub for satellite communications via the €656m IRIS² programme. Poland–Ukrainian Security: Polish police are investigating an attack on two 13-year-old Ukrainian girls in Legnica, with prosecutors also pursuing other anti-Ukrainian incidents. Corporate/Industry Expansion: Unison (GE Aerospace) expands in Europe with added manufacturing and ignition overhaul capabilities in Italy, while noting existing presence in Poland.

EU Space & Defence: Poland has joined the IRIS² secure satellite connectivity programme, committing €656m from EU recovery funds to build an EU alternative to Starlink for government, armed forces and emergency services, with Polish firms eligible for related contracts. Aviation & Tourism: Greece’s July international air seat capacity is up 6.6% year-on-year, with Poland the fastest-growing source market (+27.3% to 161,797 seats), boosting summer travel demand. Security & Disinformation: Poland’s defence minister denies reports that a Polish-made drone was shot down over Iran, saying no Polish drone was sent to the Middle East and warning of ongoing information operations. Energy Transition: Nextpower completed its acquisition of Prevalon Energy, expanding into utility-scale battery storage and pushing its global deployed storage footprint beyond 6 GWh. Business & Mobility: The Henley Passport Index shows the US passport has slipped to 10th place (36 countries ahead) as global mobility rankings shift. Tech & Gaming: CD Projekt confirms The Witcher 3 DLC “Songs Of The Past” for 2027 (no Witcher 4 at Gamescom), while Sony’s move away from PlayStation discs is backed by low physical sales figures.